Abstract: Y. Lei, D. Zhao, H. Qiao (2024)

To study the nonlinear characteristics of changes in the Earth's rotation rate, a comprehensive analysis of the nonlinear characteristics of the length of day (OLOD) OLOD) observations reflecting changes in the Earth's rotation rate is conducted from multiple perspectives, including periodicity, chaos, and fractal, by using the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), recursive quantitative analysis (RAQ), and Grassberger-Procaccia (GP) algorithms. The long-term high-accuracy OLOD observations from January 1, 1962 to December 31, 2023, were comprehensively and reliably analyzed and then used as dataset published by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS) 14C04 series. The present workfocuses on comparing and analyzing whether there are any significant differences in the OLOD characteristics before and after deducting the periodic or chaotic components of OLOD time series. The main conclusions obtained are as follows. 1) The OLOD time series consists of the well-known trend components, many periodic components, and chaotic components, and therefore can be characterized by obvious multi timescales, chaotic dynamics, and fractal structure. The characteristics were not considered in previous research. 2) The period of the OLOD time series after deducting the chaotic components is exactly the same as the period of the original OLOD time series, implying that the chaotic components have no effects on reconstruction nor analysis of the periodic components. 3) There is no significant difference in chaotic characteristics between the original OLOD time series and its time series after deducting trend and periodic components, but the complexity of the fractal structure of the former is relatively stronger. Not only can this work provide a valuable reference for studying the mechanism of changes in the Earth's rotation rate, but also model such rotation changes and then predict the chances on different timescales.

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Nonlinear characteristics of variations of Earth's rotation rate