193.174.19.232Abstract: S. Adarsh, S. M. Rajesh, B. Muraleekrishnan, S. Santhoshkhan, N. Joseph, A. Sharifi, N. Fazel, H. Marttila, A. T. Haghighi (2026)

Hydrology Research, 57(8), 100037p. (2026) DOI:10.1016/j.hydrch.2026.100037

Analyzing the hydrological dynamics of a pristine and a regulated river in northern Europe’s sub-Arctic using recurrence theory

S. Adarsh, S. M. Rajesh, B. Muraleekrishnan, S. Santhoshkhan, N. Joseph, A. Sharifi, N. Fazel, H. Marttila, A. T. Haghighi

Examining hydrological variability is essential for understanding system dynamics and supporting effective water resource management. Recurrence analysis, a nonlinear time series technique, can uncover hidden patterns in hydrometeorological data through recurrence plots (RPs) and recurrence quantification analysis (RQA). Despite its effectiveness, its application remains limited, particularly in the Nordic region. This study applies recurrence plots (RPs) and recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to daily air temperature, precipitation, and streamflow data (2000–2022) from the regulated Kemijoki and pristine Tornionjoki river basins, explicitly considering frozen and unfrozen seasons. Streamflow exhibited the strongest recurrence characteristics, with Tornionjoki showing consistently higher determinism, laminarity, and recurrence persistence than Kemijoki, indicating stronger hydrological memory and seasonal organization. Seasonal analysis showed that recurrence structures were generally more persistent during the unfrozen period, while frozen-season dynamics differed markedly between the two basins. Temperature displayed moderate to high recurrence characteristics associated with strong seasonal forcing, whereas precipitation remained the least deterministic variable, reflecting its inherently stochastic nature. Surrogate data analysis further confirmed that the observed recurrence characteristics cannot be explained solely by linear stochastic processes. These findings demonstrate that recurrence-based metrics can effectively distinguish natural and regulated hydrological regimes and provide a robust framework for understanding seasonal dynamics and anthropogenic impacts in cold-region river systems.

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